According to the new World Bank forecast, Belarus is facing stagnation – even worse than in Russia. The indicators have improved slightly since the January forecast, but they still look bad compared to other countries in the region.
According to the World Bank, in 2022 the real gross domestic product in Belarus in market prices decreased by 4.7%. In 2023, Belarus’ real GDP growth was estimated at 3.9%. Growth of 1.2% is forecast for 2024, that is, GDP will return to the level of 100.2% in 2021. GDP growth is projected to increase by another 0.7% in 2025, and by 0.5% in 2026.
The previous forecast, made in January, showed the worst estimate. Since then, Belarus has added 0.9 percentage points in 2023 and 0.4 percentage points to the forecast for 2024, but subtracted 0.1 from the forecast for 2025.
Currently, in the forecast for 2024, Belarus has the worst indicator in the countries of Southern and Eastern Europe, as well as Central Asia. Russia and Moldova forecast GDP growth of 2.2%, Bulgaria – 2.1%.
The Belarusian authorities are much more optimistic: in 2024 they plan GDP growth of 3.8% – more than the World Bank predicts for Poland.
The forecast also notes that in Belarus, the annual increase in food prices amounted to 6.2% in February 2024, compared with less than 4% in the second half of last year. Inflation is forecast at 7.4% in 2024, 6.1% in 2025, and 5.8% in 2026.